You have filled out 15 brackets. You have poured through all the statistics, all the bracketology that one mind can possibly process. But you're not done yet. Whether you're thinking of being part of the $262 million wagered legally in Nevada for this tournament or the $9 billion wagered in office pools, you're looking for that last-second edge before you turn in your bracket or make your bets.
That's why we turned to the staff at VegasInsider.com for some last-second advice as part of our last-minute tips and winning picks suggestions.
Don't get too caught up in seeds. The tournament committee and the Vegas bookmakers think very differently when it comes to March Madness matchups. The committee is invested in producing buzzer beaters and potential upsets. Vegas is invested in nailing the line through analytics.
Seeding means very little to making lines, at least as far as individual matchups are concerned. While they are taken into account for regional and championship futures, a No. 5 could very well wind up an underdog against a 12, especially since by now even my 8-year old daughter knows that seed pairing produces upsets.
In this tournament, Wichita State, grossly under-seeded as a No. 10 opened as a 6.5-point favorite over seventh-seeded Dayton. Computer simulations upon which most lines are based favors the Shockers too, but by only four points. The books have cooked this line some because all you've heard since the bracket was released was how disrespected Wichita State ended up.
We'd favor WSU over the Flyers too and can see them covering since they do carry an edge in depth, but if you're laying the points, you're laying an extra possession due to the perception that the Shockers are out to make some kind of statement instead of simply looking to advance like everyone else.
Don't forget about the First Fours. For understandable reasons, teams that survive the First Four matchups are always underdogs in that second round matchup. Not only will the winners have played a game earlier in the week already, they'll have to travel to the next destination with relatively little turnaround time, which makes preparations ragged when compared to the team that's situated an awaiting a winner.
Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, one opening round survivor has won their next game in every year. VCU turned it into a Final Four trip in 2011, making current Texas head coach Shaka Smart a star in the sport. South Florida, LaSalle, Tennessee, Dayton and Wichita State have all followed suit, with a couple reaching the Sweet 16.
This can't be rationally explained given the obstacles that must be overcome, but the fact it's happened in the year suggests that there's something to getting your feet wet in the tournament and playing with less pressure. It's even more remarkable that this has occurred when you consider that two of the First Four survivors are 16 seeds who are automatically discarded by the top seeds they face next, so only two teams have had a realistic shot to win their next game. It's worth identifying the survivor you like best and taking a shot, because they'll undoubtedly be a live 'dog.
There's such a thing as paying for a brand name in the NCAA Tournament. Because it's such a niche sport that a relatively small percentage of the country truly follows as a whole instead of regionally, books can get away with tacking on points to teams the general public knows to be good.
This would apply to Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas and this season, Lonzo Ball-led UCLA. It might be worth it to do so given the opponent and circumstances, but know that if you're riding chalk with one of the above, you're likely doing so laying a bucket or two more than the computer projection. That's why many "sharps" back the underdog and then close their eyes and ball up their fists to try and hold on for a 40-minute rollercoaster ride of playing contrarian. It's also why the slogan that good teams win and great teams cover applies throughout all sports, but particularly March Madness.
Take at least one 16 seed against the spread. We know what history tells us. A 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed, and this probably won't be the year it happens. But the gap between talent continues to shrink each year. But if there's one 16 seed we like to beat the spread, it's South Dakota State. Mike Daum is a stud. He has shown time and again in his career that he eats up the spotlight. Now, clearly Gonzaga will shadow him everywhere on the court, but other teams have tried and failed consistently. And if the Zags double up on Daum, that's going to give a lot of open looks for other SDSU teammates. That's why we like the Jackrabbits to cover the 22-point spread.
Don't get caught up in the hype. Middle Tennessee State is the first 12 seed to be favored since 1999. Should that be the case? The Blue Raiders beat 2 seed Michigan State last year and return most of that team. They have legit stars in Conference USA Player of the Year JaCorey Williams, and Madness studs Reggie Upshaw and Giddy Potts. At the same time, Minnesota is seen by most to be an overseeded 5 seed, but the Golden Gophers have had an incredible turnaround season under Richard Pitino and has faced consistently tougher competition than MTSU.
We just don't like getting too caught up in the way that EVERYONE is going. The Blue Raiders are clearly talented but it's tough to find that tourney magic back to back. Other teams getting a lot of love include 13 seed East Tennessee State against 4 seed Florida, 12 seed Princeton against 5 seed Notre Dame and 10 seed Wichita State against 7 seed Dayton.
Could Princeton slow down the game and mess with the Irish? Absolutely, but Mike Brey's team is far more battle tested than the Ivy League champ.
ETSU is the best mid-major I saw this year (yes even better than their Middle state cousins), but Florida is No. 10 in RPI for a reason. They are a legit team playing in a far more competitive conference.
And yes, Wichita State may have gotten jobbed in seeding, but Dayton has a better RPI and one more win than the Shockers against Top 25 teams (WSU has zero).
Don't be afraid to be boring. Listen, we know it's fun to pick upsets in the first couple rounds. And it may pay off for you, because there always seems to be a Cinderella or two. But the vast majority of the games go "chalk," or according to seeding. As much as we want to rag on the tournament committee, the one thing most of us can admit is they watched a heckuva lot more college hoops this year than we did.
Saint Mary's is not six seeds worse than Gonzaga. The Gaels are one of the top five defensive teams in the tournament. They have a better RPI than Purdue and West Virginia and a No. 12 BPI rank by ESPN. Are we saying bet the farm on SMC? No, but they are a better bet to beat Arizona in the Round of 32 than Wichita State is to beat Kentucky.
It's the best year to jump on the Zags' bandwagon. This is the best Gonzaga team I've seen. They score in bunches, play ferocious defense, have a star to carry them in Nigel Williams-Goss and have favorable matchups in any potential showdown. As No. 1 seeds go, they are as legit as they come, better than North Carolina and Kansas. Yes, I said it. The Zags are 6-0 against top 25 teams, UNC is 5-4 and the Jayhawks are 6-2.
Three teams not seeded 1 or 2 that built for this tourney. If Florida State can survive a feisty challenge from Florida Gulf Coast, we like their experience and depth and like their matchups, including against Arizona. Same can be said for Notre Dame, who is peaking late in the season and tourney proven under Mike Brey. And if you're not sold on UNC (as I'm not), Butler is a great alternative. Great defense, a balanced offense attack with a star (Kelan Martin) that rose the Bulldogs to the top of a loaded Big East (7 of its 10 teams in the 64-team field).
The team most likely to cover a double-digit spread. Purdue has the depth to thrive in the Madness. They're being overlooked because they're staring down a second-round showdown with an Iowa State team everyone loves or a Nevada team that is the darling of many bracketologists. As usual, Purdue is boring but they're a lock to cover 10 points against a Vermont team that has won 21 straight against mediocre competition at best.
You might hate Coach Cal, but Kentucky checks all the boxes. The best breakdown we saw on how to whittle down the field was this ESPN video. And all you Kentucky and Coach Cal haters, you won't like the result. Of the six historical predictive metrics, Kentucky is the one team that fits every category. They may not have been the most consistent team, but the Wildcats have the kind of team that can adapt to the multiple game plans champions must conquer to survive the Madness.
